After you`ve set your initial stop loss, chosen your method for calculating your trailing stop loss, and implemented all your money management rules, there is one last thing you should do; you should begin back testing your system.

With out back testing you will be headed in the right direction, but you won`t know what to expect from your system. Back testing will also give you the confidence to keep going when you begin to experience the doubt that every trader faces at some time.

Back test your system by applying the rules and conditions of the system to the stock`s historical market data. However, this is only possible if you`re trading a system that is entirely mechanical and does not require any human input to place the trades. How do you know whether or not your system is completely mechanical for back testing? Can you take down your trading plan, the set of rules and guidelines that you follow, and hand that over to someone else, who could then trade the same system and receive the same results as you would if they followed the system carefully?

If you can do this, you have a mechanical system that is ready for back testing. If you can`t, you should look at implementing a completely mechanical system. Perhaps one of the hardest parts in trading any system is to have the confidence to stick with your system. In fact, a mechanical system almost forces you to make decisions that are in direct conflict with what your gut feeling might tell you to do.

Remember, our gut feeling tells us we should hold on to losing stocks until they get to the break even point, and our gut feeling would tell us to sell shares as soon as we`re a little bit in profit. Obviously, a mechanical system goes against these human tendencies, and that is one of the reasons why it`s psychologically difficult to trade. However, back testing a mechanical system, will tell if you it your plan will work or not.

While back testing will not tell you with 100% accuracy what the profitability of your system will be once you start trading it, it will give you a very good sense of what you can expect. All prices are driven by the same two factors, supply and demand, in the present and in the past. So, even though price movements are never going to be exactly the same, in your back testing you will see the patterns, and similar movements that show up over time. With back testing you can discover the how profitable you system is likely to be, and how often you are likely to have a loss rather than a profit.

Back testing your system over different market conditions, it can be reasonable to draw parallels as to the performance of your system historically to its performance trading it in real time. Knowing this, because of back testing, will make it much easier to stick with your system, and the profits you can realistically skyrocket.

If you’re looking for a good piece of technical analysis software to do the back testing for you you should have a look at MetaStock End-of-Day or MetaStock Professional (for day traders).

-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it comes to MetaStock and designing profitable trading systems. His MetaStock website offers a huge free collection of trading related tips and tricks. Gain free access now. Click Here ==> http://www.meta-formula.com/subscribe -=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=David_Jenyns

]]> http://www.financialmarketplace.com/the-idiots-guide-to-back-testing-trading-systems/feed/ 4 http://www.financialmarketplace.com/the-sneaky-way-to-managing-losses-in-your-forex-trading/ http://www.financialmarketplace.com/the-sneaky-way-to-managing-losses-in-your-forex-trading/#comments Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:29:39 +0000 admin http://www.financialmarketplace.com/?p=182

One of the cardinal rules of Forex trading is to keep your losses small.

With small Forex trading losses, you can outlast those times the market moves against you, and be well positioned for when the trend turns around. The proven method to keeping your losses small is to set your maximum loss before you even open a Forex trading position. The maximum loss is the greatest amount of capital that you are comfortable losing on any one trade. With your maximum loss set as a small percentage of your Forex trading float, a string of losses won’t stop you from trading. Unlike the 95% of Forex traders out there who lose money because they haven’t applied good money management rules to their Forex trading system, you will be far down the road to success with this money management rule.

What happens if you don’t set a maximum loss?

Let’s look at an example. If I had a Forex trading float of $1000, and I began trading with $100 a trade, it would be reasonable to experience three losses in a row. This would reduce my Forex trading capital to $700. What do you think those 95% of traders say at this time? They would reason, “Well, I’ve already had three losses in a row. So I’m really due for a win now.”

They would decide they’re going to bet $300 on the next trade because they think they have a higher chance of winning.

If that trader did bet $300 dollars on the next trade because they thought they were going to win, their capital could be reduced to $400 dollars. Their chances of making money now are very slim. They would need to make 150% on their next trade just to break even. If they had set their maximum loss, and stuck to that decision, they would not be in this position.

Here’s a perfect illustration why most people lose money in the Forex trading market.

Let’s start out with another $1,000 float, and begin our Forex trading with $250. After only three losses in a row, we’ve lost $750, and our capital has been reduced to $250. Effectively, we must make 300% return on the next trade and that will allow us to break even.

In both of these cases, the reason for failure was because the trader risked too much, and didn’t apply good money management.

Remember, the goal here is to keep our losses as small as possible while also making sure that we open a large enough position to capitalize on profits. With your money management rules in place, in your Forex trading system, you will always be able to do this.

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David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it
comes to designing profitable stock trading systems.

Discover the “secret formula” of trading that anyone can use
to consistently generate BIG profits from the market by
downloading your FREE copy of David’s new Ultimate
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